The kids aren’t alright

In the summer of 1978, a group of young Conservatives from Hendon answered an emergency call to meet near the Welsh Harp reservoir in North London. Although 100 were invited, less than 20 turned up, but they still contributed to arguably the most famous political campaign of all time, Saatchi & Saatchi’s Labour Isn’t Working.

It seems appropriate, even 30 years on, that the Tories used the young to act as an icon for Britain’s unemployed. There are now almost 2 million people out of work, one third of which are aged between 16 and 24.

The total rate of unemployment is set to hit 10 per cent by 2010. This could mean that by the start of next year, over one million young people will be without jobs. No shortage of extras for Saatchi then.

U-turn if you want to

David Cameron has risked derision by abandoning plans to match Labour spending until 2010. The Tories’ argument centres around a public spending framework rooted in financial responsibility.

Bloggers have been quick to draw blood, but if the Saviour of Capitalism can change his mind, why can’t Mr Cameron?

Cameron is now on more traditionally Conservative ground, in spite of a new found aversion to tax cutting. Unsurprisingly, this has received widespread support among Tories. But is there anything in it? How can all nations of the world (apparently) support uniform tax cuts and Her Majesty’s Opposition not?

The arguement that short-term tax cuts, coupled with increased public spending will eventually lead to equal tax rises – possibly when Mr Osbourne has wrestled the keys to the treasury from Mr Darling’s cold, tenacious fingers – is a sound one. Sort of.

A tax cut of, say £20bn now will not necessary lead to an increased treasury debt of £20bn. With more money in their pockets, people will spend more and potentially generate more jobs. Jobs mean tax so the Government could potentially end up more people paying tax (albeit a little less). Just the shot in the arm the economy needs.

If this is the case – and Labour are clearly hoping it is – then why haven’t this Government been one of low taxes since the start?

It’s amazing to see the two main parties posturing for position, and how they’ve changed tunes with the times.

Cameron knows his ‘it’s going to hurt, but eventually you’ll thank us’ will prove unpopular compared to internationalista Santa Brown. He’s banking on the next general election being in 2009 and, given how desperate Brown has been to get into Blair’s slippers, it’s unlikely to be any sooner.

By then the public may come round to Dave’s hastily scribbled way of thinking. Of course, if superGord saves the world, the Tories could end up ruing such vacillating.

The dead cat bounce

People really are gullible. The Times has just broke the story that Labour have pulled back five points on the Tories, according to the latest Populus poll.

Brown is seen “by voters as best able to handle the recession.” Presumably they have been taken in by Brown’s self-casting as a new FDR, as a saviour of the global economy. He is not.

Labour’s proposals of tax cuts are likely to be followed by other political parties. They are a good idea; giving people back some of their hard-earned cash might encourage them to spend more or it.

But – and this is key – with Britian already carrying the greatest debt percentage of any developed country, neither the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats propose to cut tax by increasing Government borrowing. Sound like a good idea?

Brown is playing the ‘I was there when we got into this mess, so I’ll be here to get us out’ card. It is a rather limp bluff. Brown has no experience of power during a recession, just experience of deregulating the Bank of England and, by extension, facilitating wild lending and unsustainable growth.

People will eventually see through Brown, sinister smile or not. While not the sole contributor to our financial woes, he was certainly implicit in the “age of recklessness”.

Shadow Chancellor George Osbourne, in today’s Financial Times, argues that were we increase public debt for short term tax relief, “Britain’s international credibility will be further imperiled, future generations will be burdened with even more debt and a recovery would be threatened by the prospect of large tax rises. We would be sowing the seeds of the next crisis.“

The argument of incumbency or precedent should not be an acceptable one. If it held any sway, Barack Obama would still be an unknown Illinois senator. Alistair Darling would still be in charge of our roads. And, to misquote Mr Cameron, “Gordon Brown would be Prime Minister forever.” Shiver.